Modelling Korean extreme rainfall using a Kappa distribution and maximum likelihood estimate   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

J.-S. Park  H.-S. Jung 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,72(1-2):55-64

Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001  相似文献   

东亚地区春冬季与夏季大气环流异常相互关系的研究   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

孙力  安刚 《应用气象学报》2002,13(6):650-661

利用1951~2000年共50年的北半球500 hPa月平均高度距平场资料和奇异值分解技术（SVD），重点对东亚地区季节间大气环流异常的相互关系进行了初步探讨。结果表明，东亚地区季节间大气环流异常存在着较为密切的关联，并且这种明显的非同步联系具有时空相关显著的特点，尤其是夏季大气环流异常与其前冬和前春大气环流异常的联系更为密切。当前冬和前春北半球东亚大槽和北美大槽及蒙古高压偏强（或偏弱），极涡偏弱（或偏强），中高纬度盛行经向环流（或纬向环流），以及低纬和热带地区高度正距平（或负距平）明显时，则对应于夏季东亚地区西太平洋副高和鄂霍次克海阻高强度偏强（或偏弱），位置偏南（或偏北），贝加尔湖阻高强度也偏强（或偏弱），但位置偏西（或偏东）的大尺度环流形势出现。当春季北半球大气环流具有上述特点以及夏季鄂霍次克海阻高和西太平洋副高强度偏强（或偏弱），位置偏南（或偏北），且极涡较弱（较强）时，则东亚地区秋季大气环流对应于蒙古高压加强（或较弱），西太平洋副高减弱（或加强），并向南和向东移动（或移动较慢），极涡向南扩散（或扩散减弱），大气环流向冬季过渡加快（或减慢）。另外，大气环流异常还具有一定的持续性特征。  相似文献   

Near-Wall Flow Development After A Step Change In Surface Roughness     

H. Cheng  Ian P. Castro 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,105(3):411-432

An experimental study of the initial flow field downstream of a step change in surface roughness is presented. The roughness length of the downstream surface was approximately tenfold that of the upstream roughness and, unlike all previous studies, attention was concentrated on the roughness sublayer region beneath the inertial (log-law) region. The experiments were conducted at a boundary layer Reynolds number of about 6 × 10⁴ (based on layer thickness andfree-stream velocity) and around a longitudinal location where the (downstream) roughness length, z_o2, was about 1% of the boundary-layer thickness atthe roughness change point.The thickness of the roughness sublayer was found for the two roughness. It was observed that the vertical profiles of mean velocity and turbulence characteristics started to show similarity after about 160z₀₂ downstream of the roughness change. The presence of a shear stress overshoot is shown to depend strongly on the precise location (with respect to the roughness elements) at which the measurements are made and the thickness of the equilibrium layer is shown to be very sensitive to the way it is defined. It is demonstrated that the growing equilibrium layer has first to encompass the roughness sublayer before any thickness of inertial sublayer can be developed. It follows that, in somepractical cases, like flows across some urban environments, the latter(log-law) region may never exist at all.  相似文献   

Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98     

Kenneth Broad  Alexander S. P. Pfaff  Michael H. Glantz 《Climatic change》2002,54(4):415-438

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.  相似文献   

Determination of Area-Averaged Water Vapour Fluxes with Large Aperture and Radio Wave Scintillometers over a Heterogeneous Surface – Flevoland Field Experiment     

W. M. L. Meijninger  A. E. Green  O. K. Hartogensis  W. Kohsiek  J. C. B. Hoedjes  R. M. Zuurbier  H. A. R. De Bruin 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,105(1):63-83

A large aperture scintillometer (LAS) andradio wave scintillometer (RWS)were installed over a heterogeneous areato test the applicability of the scintillation method.The heterogeneity in the area, whichconsisted of many plots, was mainly caused bydifferences in thermal properties ofthe crops; the variations in theaerodynamic roughness lengthwere small. The water vapour fluxesderived from the combined LAS-RWSsystem, also known as the two-wavelengthmethod, agreed fairly well with the aggregatedwater vapour fluxes derived from in-situeddy covariance measurements. The water vapourfluxes derived from a stand-alone LASare also presented. It was found that a single LASand an estimate of the area averagedavailable energy (using a simple parameterisationscheme) can provide also reasonablearea-averaged water vapour fluxes.  相似文献   

On the mechanism of winter cyclogenesis in relation to vertical axis tilt     

M. Abdel Wahab  H. Abdel Basset  A. M. Lasheen 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,81(1-2):103-127

Summary ?This work is concerned with the behavior of the vertical trough axis tilt during the development of a Mediterranean cyclone. The period covering stages of the development of the depression is from 1200 UTC 18 January to 1200 UTC 25 January 1981. Two procedures have been used to illustrate the behavior of the vertical axis tilt with the development of our case study. In the first direct procedure we trace the centers of the cyclone for each level for each day and determine its longitude. In the second indirect procedure we compute the values and signs of the product of the perturbation of temperature and meridional velocity over the computational domain. The energetics of the depression is studied and the partition of available potential energy and kinetic energy into zonal and eddy component is adopted. The energy contents and their changes in different atmospheric levels are discussed in the course of the cyclone’s development. Received April 27, 2001; Revised December 12, 2001  相似文献   

Electrical aerosol spectrometer of Tartu University     

H. Tammet  A. Mirme  E. Tamm   《Atmospheric Research》2002,62(3-4)

The electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) of the parallel measuring principle at Tartu University is an efficient instrument for rapid measurement of the unstable size spectrum of aerosol particles. The measuring range from 10 nm to 10 μm is achieved by simultaneously using a pair of differential mobility analyzers with two different particle chargers. The particle spectrum is calculated and measurement errors are estimated in real time by using a least-squares method. Experimental calibration ensures reliability of measurement. The instrument is well suited for continuous monitoring of atmospheric aerosol.  相似文献   

Advective, orographic and radiation fog in the Tarapacá region, Chile     

P. Cereceda  P. Osses  H. Larrain  M. Farías  M. Lagos  R. Pinto  R. S. Schemenauer 《Atmospheric Research》2002,64(1-4)

A project in northern Chile was undertaken to determine the origin and behaviour of fog in the coastal and inland locations of the Tarapacá Region. In the Pampa del Tamarugal, 50 km from the sea, conditions exist for the formation of radiation fog. Advective fog has been studied on the coast and orographic fog was observed at a few coastal sites near mountain ranges with elevations above 1000 m. Fog water collected by two standard fog collectors (SFC) for 3 1/2 years showed an average flux of 8.5 l m⁻² day⁻¹ on the coast and 1.1 l m⁻² day⁻¹ inland 12 km from the coastline. On only a few days in 10 months was water collected at the inland site of Pampa del Tamarugal. GOES satellite images are shown to illustrate the pattern of formation of the stratocumuli cloud over the sea, its approach to the coastline, the entrance of fog by corridors through the coastal range and the presence of radiation fog inland. The results are important for the understanding of fog formation and dissipation along the coastal mountain range and for the recognition of potential sites for the installation of fog water collectors, which can be used as a water source in the Atacama Desert. The results also provide vital information for use in the preservation of the unique ecosystems of the most arid desert of the world.  相似文献   

沐川太平砂岩型铼钼（饿）矿点的地质特征和矿化时代   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

曹志敏  骆耀南等 《地质学报》2002,76(1):95-99

四川沐川县民主-太平-带含钼砂岩为一新矿化类型——沉积砂岩型铼钼（锇）矿点。X-射线粉晶衍射分析结果表明其中微-细晶鳞片状含钼矿物为晶质辉钼矿；高精度质谱分析发现辉钼矿中分散元素Re和铂族元素Os含量很高，具有重要的综合利用价值；高精度Re-Os同位素测年证明辉钼矿形成年龄与含矿的中生代红物学和矿床学均具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。  相似文献   

Optimal design of passive energy dissipation systems based on H∞ and H2 performances     

J. N. Yang  S. Lin  J‐H. Kim  A. K. Agrawal 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(4):921-936

Passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs), such as viscous dampers, viscoelastic dampers, etc., have been used to effectively reduce the dynamic response of civil infrastructures, such as buildings and bridges, subject to earthquakes and strong winds. The design of these passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs) involves the determination of the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities. In this paper, we present two optimal design methodologies for passive EDDs based on active control theories, including H_∞ and H₂ performances, respectively. The optimal design methodologies presented are capable of determining the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities of EDDs. Emphasis is placed on the application of linear matrix inequality (LMI) for the effective design of passive EDDs using the popular MATLAB toolboxes. One important advantage of the proposed approaches is that the computation of the structural response is not needed in the design process. The proposed optimal design methodologies have been applied to: (i) a 10‐storey building and a 24‐storey building both subject to earthquake excitations, and (ii) a 76‐storey wind‐excited benchmark building, to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed design methodologies over the conventional equal capacity design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献